El Niño Forecast in Pacific Ocean Means Shifting Disaster Risk for Portions of the Country

By Oliver Porter, NLIHC DHR Intern

Recent reports have discussed the possibility of a super El Niño, which could develop in late summer. El Niño weather events occur every few years when parts of the Pacific Ocean rise in temperature, causing cascading changes to atmospheric conditions globally and extreme weather in some parts of the globe. Super El Niños follow the same pattern, but they warm the Pacific to even higher temperatures, which heightens the impacts of weather systems globally. If forecasts prove accurate, a Super El Niño could fundamentally change the outlook for the latter half of the hurricane season in 2026 and cause continuing impacts for hurricane and wildfire seasons in 2027. 

El Niño events typically reduce cyclone and hurricane conditions in the Atlantic while increasing the conditions for those storms in the Pacific. For the US, this could mean increased cyclone and typhoon risks for Hawaii and Guam but decreased threats for the Gulf Coast and Eastern United States, which have been consistently impacted over the last decade. The first forecasts of the Atlantic Hurricane Season takes this phenomenon into account—calling for below-average tropical cyclone numbers in the Atlantic.  

While they mean a quieter Atlantic, El Niños produce powerful rainstorms in the Pacific which could pummel the West Coast and pose significant flooding concerns. El Niños’ warming effects usually do not dissipate from the atmosphere very quickly, and this specific event is expected to make 2027 the warmest year on record. If elevated temperatures persist in the years following this event, this could also increase future wildfire risk, as the increased vegetation growth from the El Niño’s enhanced rainfall eventually dries up. 

This Super El Niño is developing at a time when the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is already under crisis. The second Trump administration has a pattern of rejecting many states’ major disaster declarations, and the agency suffered extensive management shocks under the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem’s tenure, which reduced readiness and delayed disaster spending. While the new DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin rescinded Noem’s obstructive policy—requiring the Secretary to approve any expenditures over $100,0000—it remains to be seen whether the agency can properly marshal resources to communities during major disasters. Meanwhile, FEMA still lacks a permanent administrator with emergency management experience, and there has been reports that an unqualified government contractor Kara Voorhies was making decisions for acting administrator Karen Evans. 

Disaster advocates need to be prepared for heightened risks caused by the combination of this possible Super El Niño and the ongoing management crises at FEMA. NLIHC’s Disaster Housing Recovery Coalition is actively exploring strategies to strengthen states’ preparedness for disasters amidst this changing landscape and will continue to update members as these strategies develop further.