Longer Eviction Moratoria Associated with Less State-Level Homelessness, While Disaster-Related Property Damage Associated with More

By Raquel Harati, NLIHC Research Analyst 

Research published in the JAMA Network Open journal, titled “Factors Associated with Rising Homelessness Within US States, 2019 to 2024,” found that states with longer eviction moratoriums during the COVID-19 pandemic saw smaller increases in homelessness. Alternatively, they found that states with more climate disaster-related property destruction saw greater increases in homelessness in the following years after these events. These research findings indicate a need for eviction prevention, climate change mitigation, a greater focus on housing stability in disaster response plans, and more climate-resilient housing.  

Nationally, homelessness rose 33% between January 2020 and January 2024, with significant variation across states. Some states saw much greater increases, while others saw decreases. The authors examined several potential factors that could explain the differences in homelessness across the 50 states and Washington, DC. These factors included average rents, unemployment rates, COVID-19 pandemic-era housing supports (emergency rental assistance and eviction moratoria), overdose deaths as a measure of the severity of the state’s substance use epidemic, immigration, and climate-related disaster events. Data from 2021 were excluded due to the 2021 Point in Time (PIT) homelessness count being limited by pandemic-era restrictions.  

The average state-level year-over-year increase in homelessness was 7%, but the annual change varied widely across states. The most significant contributing factors to state-level changes in homelessness were the length of state eviction moratoriums during the COVID-19 pandemic and the amount of climate-related property destruction. States with longer eviction moratoria saw smaller year-over-year increases in homelessness, while states that experienced more climate-related disaster property destruction saw greater increases. The remaining factors of average rents, unemployment, ERA distribution, overdose deaths, and immigration were not consistently significant factors in year-over-year changes in homelessness. However, average rents and unemployment levels were associated with the total number of people experiencing homelessness in a state at any given time. The authors suggest that sudden shocks like disasters may drive year-over-year changes in homelessness, while long-term structural factors explain the general prevalence of homelessness at any particular time.  

These findings demonstrate that policymakers hoping to alleviate rising rates of homelessness should focus on policies that prevent evictions. Equally, the growing number of climate-related disasters and their large-scale impacts on housing call for a larger focus on housing stabilization in disaster response. Additionally, efforts to mitigate climate change and improve the resiliency of existing housing stock could also reduce the risk of homelessness after disasters. 

The full research article can be found here.