New Analysis Shows House-Passed Reconciliation Package Would Primarily Benefit Wealthy, Reduce Income Security Resources for Lowest-Income Households

By Kim Johnson, NLIHC Senior Director of Policy  

New analysis from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows the provisions in the House-passed reconciliation bill, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (H.R. 1), would primarily benefit higher-income households while reducing income security resources for households with the lowest incomes.  

“CBO estimates that if the legislation was enacted, U.S. households, on average, would see an increase in the resources available to them over the 2026–2034 period,” noted CBO in a summary of the report. “The changes would not be evenly distributed among households. The agency estimates that in general, resources would decrease for households toward the bottom of the income distribution, whereas resources would increase for households in the middle and top of the income distribution.”  

Under the provisions of the bill, higher-income households would receive greater tax cuts, thereby keeping more of their income. The study notes that, adjusted for inflation, over the next 10 years the top 10% of income earners would see an additional $12,000 in tax cuts per year, while the bottom 10% of income earners would see a drop in available income and benefits of $1,600 per year. This decrease is due primarily to cuts to Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) assistance included in the reconciliation package. Middle-income households would receive an estimated increase of between $500–$1,000 per year. The CBO report also estimates the bill would increase the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.  

Impact of Medicaid provisions on healthcare access for people experiencing homelessness  

The reconciliation bill would also make changes to the Medicaid program that would make it more difficult for people experiencing homelessness to find and maintain healthcare coverage. As the National Health Care for the Homeless Council (NHCHC) explains, address verification requirements for Medicaid that would be imposed by the reconciliation bill would pose a significant barrier for people who are living on the street, or in cars, shelters, or other temporary spaces. Citizenship verification requirements would also be difficult to navigate, as homelessness makes it extremely difficult for people to store or obtain important documents like birth certificates, Social Security cards, or IDs, which can be stolen or lost in an encampment sweep and difficult to replace. The bill would also require eligibility redetermination for Medicaid recipients every six months, which is not only inefficient, but exceedingly difficult for people experiencing homelessness who likely have inconsistent or nonreliable access to mail, phone, or the internet. Likewise, the bill would put in place monthly work reporting requirements, which are burdensome and difficult to comply with for people who may not have reliable access to the phone or internet.  

While housing assistance is not a target for cuts, the anti-poverty programs being considered for cuts play a crucial role in economic stability for people and families with low incomes, helping them put food on the table and receive needed medical care. The financial assistance these programs provide also promotes housing stability: by helping families afford the cost of food and other necessities, more money is left over at the end of the month to ensure rent is paid. States can also use Medicaid to cover health-related social needs, including housing. 

Advocates can learn more about the potential impact of the reconciliation bill on their states using the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities factsheets, available here, and contact their congressional officials to urge them to oppose the bill’s proposed cuts to Medicaid and SNAP using the Coalition on Human Need’s Take Action portal.