Study Examines the Impacts of Public Housing on Neighborhood Demographic Change Resulting from Gentrification

By Julian Mura-Kröger, NLIHC Research Intern   

An article recently published by Joseph Gibbons in Housing Policy Debate titled “Anchoring Diversity? Public Housing and Racial Stability in White Gentrifying Neighborhoods” explored whether public housing mitigated neighborhood-level racial/ethnic composition change amidst white-led gentrification between 2000 and 2019. The author found that the presence of Black public housing residents increased the odds of a neighborhood remaining predominantly in Black, both in gentrifying and non-gentrifying areas. They also found that the presence of Hispanic public housing residents had a similar effect in mixed Hispanic and white neighborhoods. Together, these findings suggest that the presence of non-white public housing residents can stabilize neighborhood demographics amid white-led gentrification.   

Gibbons used national datasets from the American Community Survey (ACS), the census, and HUD's Picture of Subsidized Households to conduct his analysis. Gibbons calculated the non-white public housing residents per capita for each neighborhood (defined in the article as census tracts), which he then compared to the odds of that same neighborhood maintaining its racial composition from the start of the decade to its end (from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019). This allowed the author to see whether and by how much an increase in the presence of non-white public housing residents raised the odds of a neighborhood remaining predominantly one race or of a mixed composition. Census tracts were considered to be gentrifying if they had median incomes below that of their city and saw greater increases in housing prices and the share of white college-educated residents than other parts of their city.   

The author found that an increase of a neighborhood’s share of Black public housing residents by one standard deviation increased the odds of a gentrifying neighborhood remaining predominantly Black by 35% between 2000 and 2010, and by 42% from 2010 to 2019. This effect was not statistically significant in mixed neighborhoods in either period. Contrary to the effect seen among Black residents, Hispanic public housing residents did not have a statistically significant impact on predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods’ odds of remaining predominantly Hispanic during gentrification, but did for certain types of mixed areas. The same increase in the share of Hispanic public housing residents increased the odds of mixed Hispanic and white neighborhoods remaining so by 18% in the 2000s and of Hispanic-Black neighborhoods by 25% in the 2010s.   

Non-public housing residents, however, had the largest impacts on neighborhood demographic stability in gentrifying and non-gentrifying areas during both intervals. The larger impacts of non-public housing residents on demographic stability are most likely due to public housing residents typically accounting for a much smaller share of a given neighborhood’s population.   

Gibbons concludes by noting public housing's potential and limitations in stabilizing neighborhood demographics amidst white-led gentrification. As the findings suggest, Black and Hispanic public housing residents may provide a modest contribution in preventing the overall shift of neighborhood racial composition. The author points out, however, that public housing may not be enough on its own to fully withstand the pressures of rising housing costs and changing demographics in these areas, particularly with the shrinking stock of public housing in cities. Moreover, the stabilizing effects of public housing on neighborhood demographics are contingent on the specific demographics of the residents of that public housing, as it relates to the neighborhood. The author concludes by noting that housing authorities may want to consider the racial and ethnic composition of tenants in allocating public housing units to maximize the stabilizing effect of public housing in a given neighborhood.  

Read the full article here.