A report released by HUD, “Using HUD Administrative Data to Estimate Success Rates and Search Durations for New Voucher Recipients,” uses a new approach based on HUD administrative data to estimate success rates among new voucher holders attempting to lease units. Using the new approach, the report estimates a success rate of 61% after 180 days of searching and a median search duration of 60 days. However, success rates and search durations varied widely across public housing authorities (PHAs). PHAs in rural counties generally had lower success rates and shorter search durations than those in urban counties. Larger PHAs, as well as PHAs located in higher-rent counties, tended to have longer search durations.
Three previous studies have measured success rates of voucher recipients on a large scale. These studies relied on data collected directly from a sample of PHAs in large metropolitan areas. While HUD acknowledges that voucher success rates are an important measure for evaluating the efficacy of the program, the most recent success rate estimate was made more than 20 years ago. In the new report, HUD adopts an approach in which it relies on administrative data collected through its Inventory Management System/PIH Information Center. If the data and methods of the report receive further validation, HUD could eventually monitor voucher success rates at both the individual PHA level and nationwide in close to real-time.
Using the new approach, HUD was able to estimate that the180-day success rate was 61% in 2019 among the 1,379 PHAs providing data of sufficient quality. HUD also measured success rates at 60 days (31.9%) and 90 days (44.9%). The success rate only rose to 63.2% at 240 days. The median search duration was 60 days.
The report also highlights characteristics of PHAs that are associated with differences in success rates and search durations. PHAs that are in predominantly rural counties tended to have lower success rates than their urban counterparts (58.5% vs. 62.3%) as well as shorter search durations (41 days vs. 65 days). PHA size did not have much of an effect on the success rate, though it impacted median search duration significantly. Median search duration ranged from 43 days for the smallest PHAs to 92 days for the largest PHAs. PHAs in counties with the highest rents (the top 25%) were shown to have higher success rates (64.4%), though they also had a higher median search duration, at 74 days.
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