The National Equity Atlas released a report, “The Shrinking Geography of Opportunity in Metro America,” demonstrating the extent to which affordable housing in high-opportunity neighborhoods has declined in recent years, particularly for low-income, Black, and Latino households. The report finds that in the 100 most populous metropolitan areas, the share of ZIP codes where median rents were affordable to low-income households dropped from 17% to 8% between 2013 and 2019. Seventy-six percent of ZIP codes with median rents affordable to low-income households and 81% of ZIP codes with median rents affordable to Black households are rated as low- or very low-opportunity.
Researchers used Zillow data on median market rents in ZIP codes from the 100 most populous metropolitan areas between 2013 and 2019. For this reason, the research reflects prices for available apartments, which tend to be higher than prices for rented apartments. The researchers defined “affordable neighborhoods” as neighborhoods in which median rents were affordable to specific groups of renters, like low-income or Black renters. The authors used the Child Opportunity Index to identify the intersection between affordable ZIP codes and high-opportunity ZIP codes. The index uses local indicators related to education, health, and economy to rank child opportunity in census tracts.
The report finds that the number of ZIP codes affordable to low-income renters – those making less than 80% of area median income (AMI) – is shrinking. Between 2013 and 2019, the number of ZIP codes affordable to low-income households dropped by more than 50%, from 1,479 to 736. As a result, fewer than 10% of ZIP codes in the 100 most populous metros were affordable to low-income renters by 2019.
Compared to white and Latino households, Black renter households experienced a greater decline in the share of ZIP codes affordable to them. Median annual income among Black households remained relatively stagnant, increasing less than $800 between 2013 and 2019. Median annual income increased nearly $3,000 for white households and $3,700 for Latino households during the same period of time. In 2019, only 7% of ZIP codes were affordable to Black renter households earning the median income, and 48 out of 100 metros have no ZIP codes affordable to Black renters earning median income.
Among ZIP codes that remain affordable to low-income households, only 24% are rated as moderate- or high- opportunity neighborhoods. Black and Latino households also face extremely limited access to affordable, high opportunity neighborhoods. Only 17% of ZIP codes affordable to Black households earning median income are ranked as moderate- or high-opportunity. No ZIP codes affordable to Black households are rated as very high-opportunity. Only 34% of ZIP codes affordable to Latino households making median income are rated as moderate-, high-, or very high-opportunity. Conversely, 62% of ZIP codes affordable to white households earning median income are rated as moderate-, high-, or very high-opportunity.
To mitigate systemic inequities that have resulted in the decline of affordable housing in high-opportunity neighborhoods, the authors recommend that policymakers invest in new strategies that promote housing justice. These strategies include enacting policies such as permanent eviction protections and rental assistance, increasing the preservation of affordable housing, and investing in spatial reparations, which may involve removing sections of highway that displaced Black communities or providing grants for homeownership to Black residents.
The report is the first in a series. Future reports will focus on how Asian and Pacific Islanders and Native Americans have been impacted by the changing landscape of affordability and opportunity.
Read the report at: https://bit.ly/3spuz6s