Public Housing RAD Conversions Not Associated with Increases in Formal Eviction Rates

By Julian Mura-Kröger, NLIHC Research Intern 

Research published in Housing Policy Debate, titled “The Effects of RAD Conversion on Eviction Patterns,” studied whether developments converting from Public Housing to Project-based Section 8 contracts under the Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD) program see changes in formal evictions. The authors found that RAD conversion was not associated with eviction filing or eviction judgment rates.  

RAD was enacted by Congress in 2012 to expand funding for Public Housing developments facing a combined backlog of $170 billion in capital needs. The program allows Public Housing Agencies (PHAs) to convert developments from conventional Public Housing to Project-based Section 8, with some PHAs transferring management of these properties to private operators while maintaining public or nonprofit ownership. As of August 2024, approximately 229,900 Public Housing units had been converted to Section 8 under RAD.  

The authors gathered eviction data from Princeton University’s Eviction Lab and the New York State Office of Court Administration. They obtained RAD conversion data from HUD. Their analysis included 3,477 Public Housing developments that had not undergone the RAD process, 121 developments currently undergoing RAD conversion, and 812 developments in which all or some buildings had completed RAD conversion. The authors then used a dynamic difference-in-differences model to evaluate whether developments that underwent RAD conversions experienced different changes in eviction filing and judgment rates than developments that did not. Data limitations on eviction records meant that the sample excluded a large portion of Public Housing developments in Texas, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts, and California.  

The authors found that eviction filings were not a strong predictor of RAD conversion, indicating that eviction patterns were not a factor in selecting Public Housing developments for the RAD program. Similarly, RAD conversions did not have statistically significant impacts on either eviction filing rates or court eviction rates. The authors found these results using a variety of different statistical models.  

While these results suggest that the RAD program has not led to a statistically significant increase in formal evictions for residents, the authors caution that the limitations of their data leave the possibility that RAD conversions may still lead to increased displacement through other means, including informal evictions, new screening practices, or administrative termination. The authors also note that nonprofit and for-profit property managers of RAD-converted buildings may differ in their likelihood of filing evictions, a dynamic the authors were unable to assess, but which may have important consequences for tenants living in specific RAD-converted developments.  

Read the full article here.