An article in HUD’s Cityscape journal, “Location Patterns of Housing Choice Voucher Households Between 2010 and 2020,” analyzes the relationship between households receiving Housing Choice Vouchers (HCVs) and neighborhood characteristics over a single decade. In addition to exploring changes in HCV household demographics, the article examines trends in the characteristics of neighborhoods where voucher households reside and relevant changes in the housing stock. The authors find that the HCV program increasingly serves older adults and adults with disabilities and that the program continues to fall short in promoting neighborhood mobility. The authors also observe a decline in the share of low-cost rental units affordable to voucher households. They emphasize the need for continued research to understand changes among voucher households and their neighborhoods, as well as the impact of interventions, such as small area fair market rents (SAFMRs), on neighborhood mobility.
To conduct their analysis, the authors combined HUD administrative data with data from the 2010 and 2020 American Community Surveys (ACS). HUD administrative data provided information on voucher household characteristics and fair market rents (FMRs), while the ACS data provided information on neighborhood characteristics such as poverty rates and available housing units accepting cash payments. The authors used census tracts as a proxy for neighborhoods.
The authors observed changes in voucher household demographics between 2010 and 2020. The number of HCV households with children decreased from 51.5% in 2010 to 40.4% in 2020, while the number of HCV households headed by an older adult or an adult with a disability rose from 46.6% in 2010 to 54.3% in 2020. Regarding race and ethnicity, the authors found that the number of Black HCV households increased by 2.5 percentage points, rising from 44.9% of households to 47.4%, making this demographic the largest population assisted. The number of Hispanic HCV households increased on a smaller scale by 0.6 percentage points, rising from 17.2% in 2010 to 17.8% in 2020. The number of White households participating in the HCV program decreased by 3.5 percentage points, from 33.8% to 30.3%.
The authors also examined neighborhood characteristics, such as poverty rates and the concentration of voucher holders, to gain further insights into whether vouchers are promoting mobility. In the decade between 2010 and 2020, the number of HCV households residing in low-poverty neighborhoods, defined as census tracts with poverty rates lower than 10%, increased by 3 percentage points to 22.7% of the total number of HCV households. However, 44% of HCV households remained in neighborhoods with poverty rates greater than 20% in 2020. There are also significant racial and ethnic disparities among voucher households when it comes to neighborhood poverty rates: Black (52.3%) and Hispanic (47.8%) HCV households were more likely to live in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of poverty compared to their white peers (30.7%). Additionally, Black and Hispanic HCV households were also twice as likely to live in neighborhoods with higher concentrations of other voucher holders, defined as neighborhoods where more than 10% of all units were occupied by voucher holders, compared to white HCV households.
Finally, the authors also examined trends in the housing stock as they related to vouchers. Between 2010 and 2020, the total number of rental units increased by 3.75 million nationwide, along with an increase of 1.2 million units affordable to voucher holders. At the same time, the total share of the housing stock renting at or below the fair market rent (FMR) nationally decreased by 3.2 percentage points, from 62% in 2010 to 58.8% in 2020. This decrease impacts the HCV program, as the payment standard for vouchers is based upon HUD’s FMRs, meaning the number of units accessible to voucher holders declined.
Based upon their findings, the authors contend that the voucher program’s foundational goals of enabling households to access the private rental market in a variety of communities and deconcentrating poverty remain hindered by the lack of affordable housing in the private rental market and the lack of landlord participation. They call for further research to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions such as SAFMRs in promoting neighborhood mobility. The authors also call for further assessment of how the needs of voucher households have changed with recent demographic shifts.
Read the full paper here.